They are predicting 90% chance of a less active than normal hurricane season. NOAA indicates that this is the highest confidence associated with these outlooks since they began in 1998.
Specific projections:
Named storms: 6-10 (normal is 12)
Hurricanes: 1-4 (normal is 6)
Major hurricanes: 0-1 (normal is 3)
"Forecasters attribute the high likelihood of a below-normal season to three primary factors:
- El Niño has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA’s latest El Niño forecast calls for a significant El Niño to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season;
- Atmospheric conditions typically associated with a significant El Niño, such as strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, are now present. These conditions make it difficult for storms to develop, and they are predicted to continue through the remaining four months of the hurricane season; and
- Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are predicted to remain below average and much cooler than the rest of the global tropics." (click here for complete NOAA press release)
To keep an eye on tropical activity go to the U.S. NWS National Hurricane Center.
