How Many "Nortes" Will We Have This Winter (2014-2015)?

You are probably asking, "What is a Norte"?  A norte is a cold front, "frentes frio", that enters Mexico during the Fall, Winter, or Spring.  The official norte season is September 20 through May 15. Nortes bring cooler temperatures, slightly drier air, and sometimes rain showers to the Riviera Maya. Temperatures at night can get down to near 50 F (10 C) during a strong norte; though normally it only drops temperatures at night into the 60s F (about 15-20 C). Daytime temperature may only be in the 70s F (about 21-26 C) during a norte. Nortes normally only last a day or two in the Riviera Maya thanks to the warm waters that surround us in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Nortes occur most frequently from November to March. The early and late season nortes usually only affect northern Mexico. The warm Gulf of Mexico helps protect the Riviera Maya from any extreme effects of nortes (like freezing temperatures and snow that more northern and mountainous parts of Mexico receive).


So how many nortes can we expect this season (Fall, Winter, and Spring)? According to the Mexican National Weather Service (Servico Meteorologicl Nacional, SMN) there will be between 47 and 63 nortes.  The normal number of nortes is 51, so this is slightly higher than normal.  The first part of the season (September through November) is projected to have 16 nortes, which is 2 more than usual. As of October 15, 2014 there have already been 7 nortes to affect Mexico; but only the 7th one had any impact on the Riviera Maya (it was a factor in the rain the last couple of days).  Here is a link to the current forecast.  An updated prediction for nortes will be released by the SMN in mid-November.

So where can you track nortes and their effects on the Riviera Maya?  The SMN releases an Adviso de Nortes whenever a norte is affecting Mexico (normally published at 10 am and 10 pm).  This advisory gives the forecast and impacts for the next few days and shows the location of any nortes. You can also look at the daily weather map from SMN to see if any storms are expected in the next 24 hours; this map is normally published at noon each day.