Norte Forecast for Rest of Winter Season (and rainfall for December and January)

The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) has issued it's forecast for expected Frentes Frios (cold fronts) for the rest of the winter season. The total number of expected cold fronts (nortes) for the entire season (September 2015 through May 2016) is 60. This is above the average number in 2012-2014, which is 51. For the main, and coldest, part of the season (November through February), 33 nortes are forecast (28 is average).  There have been 15 nortes so far this season. The first one to really affect the Riviera Maya just past a few days ago.

You can get the latest nortes advisories from SMN.

25 Nortes Expected by End of December

The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) is forecasting there to be a total of 25 cold fronts to affect Mexico by the end of December 2015.  This forecast was issued on October 11, 2015.  Frentes Frios (Norte) #8 just grazed the Yucatan Peninsula in the past day (the first one to get near the Riviera Maya for the season). 

Very Rainy Last 7 Days in Quintana Roo

The last 7 days have been very rainy in all of Quintana Roo...but it is rainy season...so this should not be a surprise.

Below are rainfall totals from around Quintana Roo for the last 7 days.  These are in millimeters (mm)...for those who are metric system challenged, 25 mm is about 1 inch.

Puerto Aventuras - over 2 inches on October 15 and October 19

Drier than Normal to Wetter than Normal over the next 3 Months

Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) has issued its 3 month precipitation outlook for Fall 2015.  It will transition from drier than normal to wetter than normal for most of the Riviera Maya.  It is the height of rainy season, so get your umbrellas and boots ready! Because even with drier than normal conditions in September we can still expect more rain than we have recently received. And remember to get your tote bag to carry your umbrella and rubber boots for when it is not raining. You can expect to see a scene like below at some point in the next few months.

Street flooding on Quinta Avenida in Playa del Carmen during rain storm

NOAA: Increased Likelihood for a Below Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

The U.S. National Weather Service has updated their 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.

They are predicting 90% chance of a less active than normal hurricane season.    NOAA indicates that this is the highest confidence associated with these outlooks since they began in 1998.

Specific projections:
Named storms: 6-10 (normal is 12)
Hurricanes: 1-4 (normal is 6)
Major hurricanes: 0-1 (normal is 3)

"Forecasters attribute the high likelihood of a below-normal season to three primary factors:

• El Niño has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA’s latest El Niño forecast calls for a significant El Niño to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season;
• Atmospheric conditions typically associated with a significant El Niño, such as strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, are now present. These conditions make it difficult for storms to develop, and they are predicted to continue through the remaining four months of the hurricane season; and
• Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are predicted to remain below average and much cooler than the rest of the global tropics." (click here for complete NOAA press release)

Just a reminder, this does not mean that a tropical storm or hurricane cannot hit the Riviera Maya.

To keep an eye on tropical activity go to the U.S. NWS National Hurricane Center.

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The U.S. National Weather Service has issued their 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.

They are predicting a less active than normal hurricane season.
Named storms: 6-11 (normal is 12)
Hurricanes: 3-6 (normal is 6)
Major hurricanes: 0-2 (normal is 3)

Of course, this does not mean that a tropical storm or hurricane cannot hit the Riviera Maya.

To keep an eye on tropical activity go to the U.S. NWS National Hurricane Center.

Update to Norte Forecast for 2014-2015 Winter Season

In an earlier post, we looked at how many nortes were forecast for the 2014-2015 winter season. The Mexican National Weather Service (Servico Meteorologico Nacional, SMN) released its original forecast back in September 2014.  An updated forecast (on January 7, 2015) is now available.  The graphic is below.

The total number expected has dropped from 55 to 53 nortes, but this is still just about normal.  So when the next norte comes, enjoy the cooler and less humid weather it brings, it will be back to hot and humid in a few days!

Hurricane and Rainy Season Coming to a Quiet End

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean basin (which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) comes to an end in a few days (November 30) as does the rainy season in the Riviera Maya. September, October and November are typically the wettest months of the year and August, September and October have the highest chance for a tropical storm or hurricane strike.

This year there have only been 6 hurricanes and 2 tropical storms in the Atlantic basin (see NHC for details). There are normally about 6 hurricanes and a total of about 11 named storms. So there were about the normal number of hurricanes but fewer total named storms than normal. And there was only one other tropical depression that did not turn into a tropical storm or hurricane.  So really a pretty quiet hurricane season. 

How Many "Nortes" Will We Have This Winter (2014-2015)?

You are probably asking, "What is a Norte"?  A norte is a cold front, "frentes frio", that enters Mexico during the Fall, Winter, or Spring.  The official norte season is September 20 through May 15. Nortes bring cooler temperatures, slightly drier air, and sometimes rain showers to the Riviera Maya. Temperatures at night can get down to near 50 F (10 C) during a strong norte; though normally it only drops temperatures at night into the 60s F (about 15-20 C). Daytime temperature may only be in the 70s F (about 21-26 C) during a norte. Nortes normally only last a day or two in the Riviera Maya thanks to the warm waters that surround us in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Nortes occur most frequently from November to March. The early and late season nortes usually only affect northern Mexico. The warm Gulf of Mexico helps protect the Riviera Maya from any extreme effects of nortes (like freezing temperatures and snow that more northern and mountainous parts of Mexico receive).

What is the Weather Like in Cancun in January or March or ???

I used data from the Mexican National Weather Service (Servicio Meteorologico Nacional) to compile information that can help answer this question.  For Cancun the records go back about 20 years.

So just how hot is it in Cancun?  The chart below shows the average high and low temperatures and the record high and low temperatures for each month.  As you can see the average high temperature is 90 F or above from April through September.  The hottest month is August with an average high temperature of 95 F. The "coolest" month (January) has an average high temperature of 83 F.  Only the months of December, January, and February have an average low temperature below 70 F.  The record high was 107 F on August 14, 2003 and the record low was 49 F on March 12, 1996.

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