Drier than Normal to Wetter than Normal over the next 3 Months

Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) has issued its 3 month precipitation outlook for Fall 2015.  It will transition from drier than normal to wetter than normal for most of the Riviera Maya.  It is the height of rainy season, so get your umbrellas and boots ready! Because even with drier than normal conditions in September we can still expect more rain than we have recently received. And remember to get your tote bag to carry your umbrella and rubber boots for when it is not raining. You can expect to see a scene like below at some point in the next few months.

Street flooding on Quinta Avenida in Playa del Carmen during rain storm

It is expected to be drier than normal in September in most of the Riviera Maya. The driest conditions will be furthest north. The above graphic shows that rain is expected to range from about 200 mm (about 8 inches) in southern Quintana Roo to about 60 to 90 mm (about 2.5 to 3.5 inches) in northern Quintana Roo.  The graphic below indicates that rainfall will be about 15-50% below normal for September for most of Quintana Roo.  Only southern Quintana Roo is expected to have near normal rainfall.

Expected precipitation for September 2015

Percent of normal precipitation expected in September 2015

October is expected have near normal rainfall over most of Quintana Roo; the only area where below normal rain is expected is extreme northern Quintana Roo.  As in September, rain is expected to range from about 200 mm (about 8 inches) in southern Quintana Roo to about 60 to 90 mm (about 2.5 to 3.5 inches) in northern Quintana Roo.

Expected precipitation for October 2015

Percent of normal precipitation expected in October 2015

November is expected have above normal rainfall over most of Quintana Roo; the only area where near normal rain is expected is extreme northern Quintana Roo. Rain is expected to range from about 150 to 170 mm (about 6 to 7 inches) in southern Quintana Roo to about 30-60 mm (about 1 to 2 inches) in northern Quintana Roo.

Expected precipitation for November 2015

Percent of normal precipitation expected in November 2015

Specifically for the Puerto Aventuras to Playa del Carmen area, SMN is projecting:

• September:  120-150 mm (5-6 inches) or about 15-25% below normal
• October:  90-120 mm (3.5-5 inches) or with 15% of normal 
• November:  60-90 mm (2-3.5 inches) or about 25% above normal