2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The U.S. National Weather Service has issued their 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.  Just a reminder, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

They are predicting a more active than normal hurricane season. With a 60% chance of above normal activity, a 30% chance of normal activity, and only a 10% chance of below normal activity.

Here is the prediction for number of named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes).

Named storms: 13-19 (normal is 12)

Hurricanes: 6-10 (normal is 6)

Major hurricanes: 3-6 (normal is 3)

The Mexican National Weather Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) is also predicting an active season.

CNN has a good story on what other governments, universities, and private entities are predicting.  Almost all are predicting above normal activity this hurricane season.

Graph of various hurricane season forecasts.
Courtesy of CNN and Seasonal Hurricane Predictions.

Of course, this does not mean that a tropical storm or hurricane will hit the Riviera Maya. It does mean that we need to remain vigilant, be prepared, and monitor the weather.

Here are the names for the storms in 2020. The season got an early start as short-lived Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha occurred in May.

The NOAA press release explains the reasoning behind the prediction of an active hurricane season:

"The combination of several climate factors is driving the strong likelihood for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Similar conditions have been producing more active seasons since the current high-activity era began in 1995."

To keep an eye on tropical activity go to the U.S. NWS National Hurricane Center.

And remember to get a totebag from PuertoDise's CafePress store to carry your umbrella and hand sanitizer!