2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

 The U.S. National Weather Service has issued their 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.  Just a reminder, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

They are predicting a more active than normal hurricane season. With a 65% chance of above normal activity, a 25% chance of normal activity, and only a 10% chance of below normal activity.

Here is the prediction for number of named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes).

Named storms: 14-21 (normal is 12)

Hurricanes: 6-10 (normal is 6)

Major hurricanes: 3-6 (normal is 3)

The Mexican National Weather Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) is also predicting an active season.

Seasonal Hurricanes Predictions shows what other governments, universities, and private entities are predicting.  All are predicting above normal activity this hurricane season.

Graph of various hurricane season forecasts.
Courtesy of Seasonal Hurricane Predictions.

Of course, this does not mean that a tropical storm or hurricane will hit the Riviera Maya. It does mean that we need to remain vigilant, be prepared, and monitor the weather.

Here are the names for the storms in 2022. The season got an early start as short-lived Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha occurred in May.

The NOAA press release explains the reasoning behind the prediction of an active hurricane season:

"The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons."

To keep an eye on tropical activity go to the U.S. NWS National Hurricane Center.

And remember to get a totebag from PuertoDise's CafePress store to carry your umbrella, mask and hand sanitizer!