The Final Norte of the Season?

If you are in the Riviera Maya, you may have had to put a blanket on the bed overnight.  We had a rather strong Norte for this late in the season pass through yesterday.  It all started with the first real rain in a month; see my post on that event.

You can see that the temperature at the Navy weather station dropped during and after the rain on the afternoon of May 4th.  It still got pretty hot yesterday (May 5th) with a high temperature of about 30C (86F).  But as you can see it definitely got chilly last night with a low temperature of about 16C (60F).

Temperature chart for April 30 - May 6, 2016.

Rain chart for April 30 - May 6, 2016.

First Real Rain in Puerto Aventuras in a Month

We got our first real rain in Puerto Aventuras in more than a month a couple days ago. It rained about 0.25 inches at the Navy weather station in Puerto Aventuras.

This rain event was also recorded at a Weather Underground Personal Weather Station that is located in Puerto Aventuras.  That station reported 0.38 inches of rain.  You can see the rain only lasted about 2 hours.

This was the first rain of at least 0.25 inches since the first week of April.  This should help the lush vegetation that has been getting thirsty.  

See my blog post on this new weather station.

New Weather Station in Puerto Aventuras

There is a new weather station in Puerto Aventuras that shows the current weather conditions.  I have a link to this Weather Underground Personal Weather Station on the top of the right column of this blog page.  Here is image of what to look for:

This is a great way to keep up with the weather in Puerto Aventuras and the data is usually less than 30 minutes old.  So always give it a quick check before heading out the door so you know what to expect weatherwise.  They also have a link to the weather forecast there too.

Strong Nortes for Riviera Maya

There have been several strong nortes (cold fronts) go through the Riviera Maya in the last month.  So, if you are visiting and are not prepared you may be a little chilly.  Never hurts to bring a sweater or light jacket when out and about in the Riviera Maya during the winter (norte season).

Here charts of temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, and rain to illustrate the cool air that the nortes bring.  These observations are taken at the Mexican Navy (Secretaria de Marina or SEMAR) base in Puerto Aventuras that is just a few hundred feet inland from the Caribbean Sea.

Temperate at Puerto Aventuras, Mexico from February 5-11, 2016

Norte Forecast for Rest of Winter Season (and rainfall for December and January)

The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) has issued it's forecast for expected Frentes Frios (cold fronts) for the rest of the winter season. The total number of expected cold fronts (nortes) for the entire season (September 2015 through May 2016) is 60. This is above the average number in 2012-2014, which is 51. For the main, and coldest, part of the season (November through February), 33 nortes are forecast (28 is average).  There have been 15 nortes so far this season. The first one to really affect the Riviera Maya just past a few days ago.

You can get the latest nortes advisories from SMN.

25 Nortes Expected by End of December

The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) is forecasting there to be a total of 25 cold fronts to affect Mexico by the end of December 2015.  This forecast was issued on October 11, 2015.  Frentes Frios (Norte) #8 just grazed the Yucatan Peninsula in the past day (the first one to get near the Riviera Maya for the season). 

Very Rainy Last 7 Days in Quintana Roo

The last 7 days have been very rainy in all of Quintana Roo...but it is rainy season...so this should not be a surprise.

Below are rainfall totals from around Quintana Roo for the last 7 days.  These are in millimeters (mm)...for those who are metric system challenged, 25 mm is about 1 inch.

Puerto Aventuras - over 2 inches on October 15 and October 19

Drier than Normal to Wetter than Normal over the next 3 Months

Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) has issued its 3 month precipitation outlook for Fall 2015.  It will transition from drier than normal to wetter than normal for most of the Riviera Maya.  It is the height of rainy season, so get your umbrellas and boots ready! Because even with drier than normal conditions in September we can still expect more rain than we have recently received. And remember to get your tote bag to carry your umbrella and rubber boots for when it is not raining. You can expect to see a scene like below at some point in the next few months.

Street flooding on Quinta Avenida in Playa del Carmen during rain storm

NOAA: Increased Likelihood for a Below Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

The U.S. National Weather Service has updated their 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.

They are predicting 90% chance of a less active than normal hurricane season.    NOAA indicates that this is the highest confidence associated with these outlooks since they began in 1998.

Specific projections:
Named storms: 6-10 (normal is 12)
Hurricanes: 1-4 (normal is 6)
Major hurricanes: 0-1 (normal is 3)

"Forecasters attribute the high likelihood of a below-normal season to three primary factors:

• El Niño has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA’s latest El Niño forecast calls for a significant El Niño to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season;
• Atmospheric conditions typically associated with a significant El Niño, such as strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, are now present. These conditions make it difficult for storms to develop, and they are predicted to continue through the remaining four months of the hurricane season; and
• Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are predicted to remain below average and much cooler than the rest of the global tropics." (click here for complete NOAA press release)

Just a reminder, this does not mean that a tropical storm or hurricane cannot hit the Riviera Maya.

To keep an eye on tropical activity go to the U.S. NWS National Hurricane Center.

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The U.S. National Weather Service has issued their 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.

They are predicting a less active than normal hurricane season.
Named storms: 6-11 (normal is 12)
Hurricanes: 3-6 (normal is 6)
Major hurricanes: 0-2 (normal is 3)

Of course, this does not mean that a tropical storm or hurricane cannot hit the Riviera Maya.

To keep an eye on tropical activity go to the U.S. NWS National Hurricane Center.