2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

 The U.S. National Weather Service has issued their 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.  Just a reminder, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

They are predicting a more active than normal hurricane season. With a 65% chance of above normal activity, a 25% chance of normal activity, and only a 10% chance of below normal activity.

Here is the prediction for number of named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes).

Named storms: 14-21 (normal is 12)

Hurricanes: 6-10 (normal is 6)

Major hurricanes: 3-6 (normal is 3)

Record Breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season has thankfully come to an end.  There was a record of 30 named storms.  See the article by NOAA here.  

Storm names for the Atlantic Ocean basin for 2020.  Crossed 
out names are storms that occurred.

This season was very busy in the Riviera Maya too.  We had Cristobal in early June and then Gamma, Delta, and Zeta in October.

Map of storms as of November 30, 2020.

Here are NOAA GOES-16 Infrared images for Gamma and Delta as they made landfall in the Riviera Maya on October 3 and 7, respectively.

Tropical Storm Gamma at 7:30 a.m. on October 3, 2020.

Hurricane Delta at 6:00 a.m. on October 7, 2020.

GOES-16 was taking visible images every minute as Gamma made landfall just south of Puerto Aventuras, as seen in the below movie. 

Tropical Storm Gamma from 9:20-9:50 a.m. on October 3, 2020.

Looking at data from the weather station at the Puerto Aventuras Navy station is also very interesting.  The atmospheric pressure graph from October 2-8, 2020 below clearly shows the passage of the center of these two storms.  

The graphs of the wind speed show that in Puerto Aventuras the winds were actually stronger and were more prolonged for Tropical Storm Gamma than for Hurricane Delta.  Gamma had winds of about 30 mph, with gusts to about 55 mph.  Delta had winds of about 27 mph, with gusts to about 45-50 mph.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall at Ciudad Chemuyil (about 15 miles south of Puerto Aventuras) at 11:10 p.m. on October 26, 2020.  See GOES-16 infrared image at 11:01 p.m. below.

Below is a chart that shows the atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and wind gust speed from the Puerto Aventuras Navy weather station from Oct 26-27, 2020.  Winds (in green) reached over 30 mph, with gusts (in red) to 65 mph.  These occurred as the pressure (in blue) dropped to about 990 millibars as the storm made landfall.

A resident of Puerto Aventuras posted a YouTube video of the damage.  Below are damage photos from around Puerto Aventuras Resort on October 27, 2020 after the passage of Hurricane Zeta.

Tropical Storm Gamma - Tropical Storm Warning for Riviera Maya

October 3, 2020 3pm update.

Center just passed Puerto Aventuras.  See the atmospheric pressure graphic below.

Remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda affecting Riviera Maya

The Remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are affecting the Riviera Maya today and will likely continue to produce rain over southeast Mexico for several days.  Here is the location of Amanda as it was downgraded at 4pm QRoo time today (May 31, 2020) courtesy of the U.S National Hurricane Center:

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The U.S. National Weather Service has issued their 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.  Just a reminder, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

They are predicting a more active than normal hurricane season. With a 60% chance of above normal activity, a 30% chance of normal activity, and only a 10% chance of below normal activity.

Here is the prediction for number of named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes).

Named storms: 13-19 (normal is 12)

Hurricanes: 6-10 (normal is 6)

Major hurricanes: 3-6 (normal is 3)

First Norte for Riviera Maya in Fall of 2019

A strong norte (cold front) passed through the Riviera Maya on November 16, 2019.  The winds switched to be steadily from the northwest early on the 16th, ushering in the cooler air.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 to Affect Riviera Maya on Oct 6-8, 2018

The National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Riviera Maya from Tulum north to the Cancun area.




















Here is probability of tropical storm force winds:

Here is the key message from the NHC:

Tropical Storm Watch for Riviera Maya

Subtropical Storm Alberto Forms off Riviera Maya coast.

Get ready for (more) heavy rains!

From U.S. National Hurricane Center
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be required for portions of this area later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

First Norte of the Season for the Riviera Maya

A relatively strong norte (cold front) passed through the Riviera Maya on October 25, 2017.  The winds switched to the northwest, ushering in the cooler air.

Wind direction at Puerto Aventuras weather station from October 21-27, 2017.

Very Heavy Rains in Puerto Aventuras October 1-2, 2017

Getting some very heavy rain in Puerto Aventuras the last couple days (October 1-2, 2017).

The image below shows that about 2 inches of rain fell on October 1, 2017.  And about 2.5 inches of rain have fallen in just the first half of October 2, 2017.

Last 90 days of rainfall at Puerto Aventuras, Mexico.